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December 2nd, 2014
In the opening chapter of Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions by Gerd Gigerenzer, he writes:
When something goes wrong, we are told that the way to prevent further crisis is better technology, more laws, and bigger bureaucracy. How to protect ourselves from the next financial crisis? Stricter regulations, more and better advisers. How to protect ourselves from the threat of terrorism? Homeland security, full body scanners, further sacrifice of individual freedom. How to counteract exploding costs in health care? Tax hikes, rationalization, better genetic markers. One idea is absent from these lists: risk-savvy citizens.
In this wonderful book, Gigerenzer shows how to assess and deal with risk (i.e., known risks) versus uncertainty (i.e., unknown risks). “If risks are known, good decisions require logic and statistical thinking…If some risks are unknown, good decisions also require intuition and smart rules of thumb.” He provides practical guidelines for applying the right types of thinking to many real problems that we face in life, such as those related to finance and health care, leading to better decisions. He exposes the folly of trusting statistical algorithms when they’re applied to high levels of uncertainty, such as the behavior of the stock market. He also proposes ways to simplify the understanding of probabilities associated with quantifiable risks, such as the risk of dying from prostate cancer if you test positive on a prostate-specific antigens (PSA) test, which many medical doctors misunderstand.
He cares deeply about health care and is intimately acquainted with its failures in decision making.
The major cause is the unbelievable failure of medical schools to provide efficient training in risk literacy. Medical progress has become associated with better technologies, not with better doctors who understand these technologies. Medical students have to memorize tons of facts about common and rare diseases. What they rarely learn is statistical thinking and critical evaluation of scientific articles in their own field. Learning is geared toward performance in the final exam, which shows little correlation with clinical experience.
He argues that society as a whole must become risk literate, which involves a basic level of statistical thinking that few of us learn in school. Of all branches of mathematics, statistics is the most practical and broadly applicable to life, yet it isn’t routinely taught in school along with algebra, geometry, and calculus. Taught properly, children can easily learn the basics of statistical thinking. Gigerezner, and I also, believe that this training is essential and becoming more so each day. “As a general policy, coercing and nudging people like a herd of sheep instead of making them competent is not a promising vision for a democracy.”
Here, in his own words, is what he argues in the book:
- Everyone can learn to deal with risk literacy. In this book, I will explain principles that are easily understood by everyone who dares to know.
- Experts are part of the problem rather than the solution. Many experts themselves struggle with understanding risks, lack skills in communicating them, and pursue interests not aligned with yours. Giant banks go bust for exactly these reasons. Little is gained when risk-illiterate authorities are placed in charge of guiding the public.
- Less is more. When we face a complex problem, we look for a complex solution. And when it doesn’t work, we seek an even more complex one. In an uncertain world, that’s a big error. Complex problems do not always require complex solutions. Overly complicated systems, from financial derivatives to tax systems, are difficult to comprehend, easy to exploit, and possibly dangerous. And they do not increase the trust of the people. Simple rules, in contrast, can make us smart and create a safer world.
His arguments are convincing and the principles that he teaches are practical and accessible. I recommend this book.
December 1st, 2014
I believe that no single quality better equips data analysts for success than curiosity. Ian Leslie’s book Curious: The Desire to Know and Why Your Future Depends on It, isn’t about data analysis, but is instead about curiosity in general: what it is, how it develops, how caregivers can encourage its development in children, how societies view it, what it enables us to do, how modern technologies affect it, and how it enriches our lives.
Cognitive scientists have identified three types of curiosity:
- Diversive curiosity: the attraction to everything novel, which is with us from early childhood
- Epistemic curiosity: a desire to learn and understand
- Empathic curiosity: an interest in the thoughts and feelings of others
We’re born with diversive curiosity, but it can mature into epistemic and empathic curiosity. These deeper, “more disciplined, and effortful” types of curiosity are the subject of this book. Let me apply these distinctions to data visualization. Someone who is engaged by superficial aspects of an infographic’s design—what I often refer to as flash and dazzle—is exercising diversive curiosity. Many infographics are designed to appeal solely to curiosity of this type. Someone who is drawn to an infographic to learn and understand its story is exercising epistemic curiosity. This person is drawn in by the clarity and importance of the information. If the infographic reveals something about a people or culture, empathic curiosity might draw the viewer in.
Here are a few quotes to whet your appetite:
We romanticize the curiosity of children because we love their innocence. But creativity doesn’t happen in a void. Successful innovators and artists effortfully amass vast stores of knowledge, which they can then draw on effiortlessly. Having mastered the rules of their domain, they can concentrate on rewriting them.
A major concern of this book is that digital technologies are severing the link between effort and mental exploration. By making it easier for us to find answers, the Web threatens habits of deeper inquiry—habits that require patience and focused application.
Chris Anderson, the former editor of Wired, has made the extreme case for the potential of…[Big Data]. “Out with every theory of human behavior, from linguistics to sociology. Forget taxonomy, ontology, and psychology. Who knows why people do what they do? The point is that they do it, and we can track and measure it with unprecedented fidelity. With enough data, the numbers speak for themselves.” Anderson thinks that when you amass Big Data, you no longer have to bother with the Big Why.
Curious? If so, I recommend that you read this book.
October 21st, 2014
In the past few years, several fine books have been written by neuroscientists. In this blog I’ve reviewed those that are most useful and placed Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast & Slow at the top of the heap. I’ve now found its worthy companion: The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.
This new book by Daniel J. Levitin explains how our brains have evolved to process information and he applies this knowledge to several of the most important realms of life: our homes, our social connections, our time, our businesses, our decisions, and the education of our children. Knowing how our minds manage attention and memory, especially their limitations and the ways that we can offload and organize information to work around these limitations, is essential for anyone who works with data.
This excerpt from the introduction will provides a sense of Levitin’s intention:
We humans have a long history of pursuing neural enhancement—ways to improve the brains that evolution gave us. We train them to become more dependable and efficient allies in helping us to achieve our goals…Through the sheer force of human ingenuity, we have devised system to free our brains of clutter, to help us keep track of details that we can’t trust ourselves to remember. All of these innovations are designed either to improve the brain we have, or to off-load some of its functions to external sources…It’s helpful to understand that our modes of thinking and decision-making evolved over the tens of thousands of years that humans lived as hunter-gatherers. Our genes haven’t fully caught up with the demands of modern civilization, but fortunately human knowledge has—we now better understand how to overcome evolutionary limitations. This is the story of how humans have coped with information and organization from the beginning of civilization. It’s also the story of how the most successful members of society…have learned to maximize their creativity, and efficiency, by organizing their lives so that they spend less time on the mundane, and more time on the inspiring, comforting, and rewarding things in life.
Levitin describes the nature of our so-called information age, including the many ways that work done by information specialists in the past has been transferred to us (for example, making our own travel arrangements rather than relying on the services of a travel agent), resulting in overwhelming cognitive demands. He shows how the coping strategy of multi-tasking is in fact an inefficient form of serial tasking—attentional switching—that provides an illusory sense of productivity. Many of life’s challenges require focus—extended periods of uninterrupted attention. We also need the replenishment of neural energy that the mind-wandering mode provides, where associations and insights can form while the mind soars freely.
How we sort through incoming data in rapid triage to separate urgent matters from others, how we categorize and store it for later retrieval, how we protect ourselves from the din of distracting noise, and how we assess facts when making decisions, are all skills that we can learn. Levitin’s advice is practical, lucid, and firmly rooted in an understanding of the brain.
When organizations are chasing the latest so-called Big Data technologies, it’s important to recognize that more and faster isn’t necessarily better, and in fact, is often worse, because of the ways that our brains are designed. If you’re involved in business intelligence, analytics, data visualization, data science, data storytelling, decision support, or whatever you choose the call the work of data sensemaking and communication, books like The Organized Mind are more useful to your success than a hundred books about specific software tools. Do yourself a favor and read this book.
October 3rd, 2014
In my dashboard design course, which I taught most recently last week in Portland, Oregon, it is inevitable that participants ask for help in gathering requirements for a useful dashboard. An entire weeklong course could easily be dedicated to the process of interacting with people to determine what they should be monitoring on a dashboard and how they should monitor it. Because my dashboard design course focuses on the visual design of dashboards, I spend little time on the important topic of requirements gathering. I know someone, however, whose work focuses on this important topic: Stacey Barr, the Performance Measurement Specialist.
Stacey and I became fast friends several years ago during my first visit to Australia. Stacey is based in Brisbane. I turn to Stacey when I have questions about performance measurement and she turns to me when she has questions about data visualization. For years I’ve been encouraging Stacey to put her ideas in a book and I’m thrilled to announce that, after a long labor of love, she has done so. Within a couple of weeks her book Practical Performance Measurement will be available through booksellers such as Amazon.
I haven’t received my copy yet, so I can’t comment on the content, but I’m confident that it will be worthwhile. One way to determine this for yourself is to attend a free webinar that Stacey will be conducting to introduce some of the book’s content. If you struggle with performance measurement, you should take advantage of this opportunity.
October 1st, 2014
During the last few months, I’ve been hit with a double barrel of distraction. Life sometimes gets in the way, but the path forward is opening up and I’m anxious to once again give my work the attention it deserves. Even though I haven’t been very active in this blog recently, things have been happening. My new book Signal is only a few days away from being ready for editing, but just as exciting are the two new advanced data visualization courses that I’ll be introducing in January and the addition of Nick Desbarats (pronounced like the name Deborah) as an educator and design consultant to the Perceptual Edge team.
Nick approached me a few months ago with a passion for data visualization, combined with a keen intellect, a fine pedigree of skills and experiences in decision support, and an insatiable curiosity. He’s also an accomplished business leader, having founded or co-founded three companies.
Even though I had long ago decided that I would never hire someone to teach my courses, Nick eventually opened my mind to the possibility. Nick’s addition to the team will solve a particular problem that many organizations have faced during the last few years since I began teaching public workshops: he will accept invitations to teach my courses privately. In recent years I’ve turned down many requests for private courses, preferring to use my limited time for teaching in public workshops where I can reach the broadest audience possible in the most efficient way. Nick is now available to teach Show Me the Numbers privately, and will soon offer my Information Dashboard Design and Now You See It courses as well. If your organization has at least 30 people that you’d like to have trained, email us at info@PerceptualEdge.com or call us at (510) 558-7400 to discuss the possibility.
As some of you have already noticed, we’ve opened registration for two new advanced courses on our Workshops page. On January 13 and 14, 2015 I’ll be teaching the two-day course Signal, which covers the content of my new book, in Berkeley, California. I’ll also be teaching it in Utrecht in the Netherlands on May 18 and 19, 2015 and in Sydney, Australia on November 10 and 12, 2015. Here’s an introduction to the content of Signal.
Many people assume that, if they know how to use data analysis software, this means that they are skilled data analysts. Knowledge of data analysis tools and possession of data analysis skills, however, are not the same. Even expert users of analytical tools frequently have little or no knowledge of fundamental yet powerful data analysis techniques.
Do you have the nagging sense that signals in your data—the things that matter most—might be slipping by unnoticed? Do you ever wonder if you’re wasting time tracking the wrong metrics or tracking the right metrics in the wrong ways? The data analysis that takes place in most organizations produces only a small fraction of its potential for useful insights. This is because most of the people who do this work have never been trained in data exploration and analysis beyond the basics, if at all. When presented with a new data set, do you know how to get the lay of the land—the context that’s necessary for analytical insights? Do you know how to separate signals from the noise?
At any given point in time, only a small portion of any organization’s data is useful for decision making. The rest is noise. Increases in data volume, velocity, and variety are actually more a problem than a benefit unless you know how to find and decipher signals buried in that growing haystack.
In this advanced data exploration and analysis course, I’ll take participants beyond the basic skills that are taught in my books Show Me the Numbers and Now You See It to the next level of statistical and data visualization skills that are required for signal detection. Only the signals matter.
The other new advanced course is Advanced Dashboard Design. I’ll be teaching this three-day course for the first time on January 27-29, 2015 in Berkeley, California, and later in London on March 4-6, 2015 (now open for registration) and in Sydney, Australia on November 10-12, 2015. This course is limited to 20 participants. Here’s a description:
Dashboards have now been a popular form of information display for over a decade, but relatively few of them live up to their potential. In my book Information Dashboard Design: Displaying Data for At-a-Glance Monitoring, Second Edition (2013), I introduce best practices for dashboard design that can be learned with relative ease. Competence, however, take more than reading a book; it takes experience that benefits from expert oversight and advice. This three-day course is specifically designed for dashboard designers who have already learned the basics and now want to extend and deepen their skills.
A series of short lectures and discussions cover advanced dashboard design topics, but most of the course involves hands-on dashboard design. Working in small groups of four, participants work collaboratively to fully design (but not develop) real dashboards of their choosing. Each participant brings a single set of dashboard requirements to the course and, with the assistance of fellow participants and myself, proceeds step-by-step through the design process from initial sketching to polished wireframes, which they present to the class on the last day for a final critique. Participants leave the course with a well-designed, real-world dashboard in hand and the skills to produce others, again and again.
This course is limited to 20 participants and is only for those who are already skilled dashboard designers.
If you have any questions about private training by Nick Desbarats or about either of the two advanced courses, you’re welcome to post them here in this blog.